Essays on the measurement of pressure on the foreign exchange market in Morocco

Abstract

Currency crisis seems to become a key theme in financial systems today, both nationally and internationally. This article aims to measure the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market through the EMPI index. It was found that no crisis was signaled by this index during the years 2018 and 2019, which means that the policy of gradual flexibility of the exchange rate regime, which entered into force in January 2018, played an important role in this context. Consequently, this reform would undoubtedly have reduced the pressure on the exchange rate by making the Moroccan economy more resilient and less vulnerable to external shocks. Thus, it was noted that 8 periods of crisis were identified with significantly high probabilities. Among these 8 periods, 3 periods can be distinguished, which have been planned with more intensity, in particular in the second half of 2008, in the first half of 2012 & 2017.