Analysis of the determinants of the foreign trade balance in Morocco: What impact of the Covid-19?

Abstract

This paper examines the composition and development of trade in goods and services as well as the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the commercial market. It establishes the coverage rate, representing net exports, and clarifies the factors influencing its dynamics by basing itself on the conventional exchange rate determinants, such as economic activity and price competition. A co-integration approach is used to evaluate to what extent deviations in this balance could be explained by macroeconomic trends in Morocco and its main foreign partners and by foreign trade prices.

The results obtained from the ARDL model confirm the existence of long-term dynamics that are stronger than short-term ones, thus demonstrating that the deficit in Morocco's external balance is due to structural factors.