Identification of fluctuations origins in the Business Cycle in Morocco: Reduced DSGE modelling

Authors

  • FANCHY Hajar
  • EL MZABI Amal
  • HEFNAOUI Ahmed

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10149741

Keywords:

Business cycle, Reduced DSGE, Fluctuations origins, Supply shocks

Abstract

This article explores the origins of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations in Morocco.  A reduced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify these fluctuations, with a specific focus on demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. The study leverages data spanning from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicates that supply pertubations predominantly drive production and inflation fluctuations within Morocco. Our economy tends to react more sensitively to supply-side factors, such as productivity fluctuations, supply chain interruptions and agricultural supply dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policy-makers, revealing the necessity to adjust and adapt their policies in order to stabilise the economy and promote economic growth.

Author Biographies

FANCHY Hajar

(Economics Phd student, Researcher)
Economic Performance and Logistics Laboratory
Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Mohammedia
Hassan II University Casablanca

EL MZABI Amal

(Professor)
Economic Performance and Logistics Laboratory
Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Mohammedia
Hassan II University Casablanca

HEFNAOUI Ahmed

(Professor)
Economic Performance and Logistics Laboratory
Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Mohammedia
Hassan II University Casablanca

Published

2023-11-17

How to Cite

FANCHY Hajar, EL MZABI Amal, & HEFNAOUI Ahmed. (2023). Identification of fluctuations origins in the Business Cycle in Morocco: Reduced DSGE modelling. African Scientific Journal, 3(20), 963. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10149741