Identification of fluctuations origins in the Business Cycle in Morocco: Reduced DSGE modelling

Abstract

This article explores the origins of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations in Morocco.  A reduced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify these fluctuations, with a specific focus on demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. The study leverages data spanning from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicates that supply pertubations predominantly drive production and inflation fluctuations within Morocco. Our economy tends to react more sensitively to supply-side factors, such as productivity fluctuations, supply chain interruptions and agricultural supply dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policy-makers, revealing the necessity to adjust and adapt their policies in order to stabilise the economy and promote economic growth.